Daily Kos

Bloomberg: Leaked Obama internal predictions?

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:23:08 PM PDT

Bloomberg story

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

Inadvertently attached?  Showing that they forecast a very close win in pledged delegates but not enough to clinch the nomination?  More below...

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

Giving Clinton the big 3 states that are left?

Why would Obama do this?

Innocent mistake that they're kicking themselves over?  Or a way to set him up as a favorite - but not by so much of one that he can't shed the underdog status?  A message to superdelegates that he needs them to win and that they shouldn't stay on the sideline?  

Risk of course is that they are forecasting a bunch of victories, and if Hillary wins Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Virginia, DC, or Maryland - any of the next 6 - then she has defeated Obama and overperformed.  Also by calling out that she's supposed to win Texas, Ohio, and PA then even if Obama wins the next 6 Hillary has a reason to stay in.

What do you think?

Tags: Barack Obama (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

View Comments | 20 comments